Overview
Column
Overview
For riding-level estimates, hover over the map below.
Detailed information for each riding are available through the navigation bar above, organized by region.
Riding-by-riding map
Column
Provincial summary
Distribution of outcomes
Scenarios
Riding-by-riding win probabilities
Ajax
Row
Riding
Ajax
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Ajax
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 50.4% |
| Liberal | 49.6% |
| NDP | 0.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Ajax
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 35.1% |
| Liberal | 35.1% |
| NDP | 21.2% |
| Other | 4.6% |
| Green | 4.0% |
Simulation outcomes in Ajax
Simulation outcomes
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Row
Riding
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.4% |
| Liberal | 0.6% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 49.8% |
| Liberal | 29.2% |
| NDP | 12.2% |
| Other | 4.5% |
| Green | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Simulation outcomes
Brampton Centre
Row
Riding
Brampton Centre
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Brampton Centre
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 88.7% |
| NDP | 9.0% |
| Liberal | 2.4% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Brampton Centre
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 35.2% |
| NDP | 26.9% |
| Liberal | 24.2% |
| Other | 8.5% |
| Green | 5.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Brampton Centre
Simulation outcomes
Brampton East
Row
Riding
Brampton East
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Brampton East
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 60.0% |
| PC | 37.2% |
| Liberal | 2.8% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Brampton East
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 34.9% |
| PC | 33.1% |
| Liberal | 24.9% |
| Other | 4.8% |
| Green | 2.4% |
Simulation outcomes in Brampton East
Simulation outcomes
Brampton North
Row
Riding
Brampton North
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Brampton North
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 68.0% |
| Liberal | 24.5% |
| NDP | 7.6% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Brampton North
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 33.8% |
| Liberal | 29.9% |
| NDP | 26.4% |
| Green | 5.7% |
| Other | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Brampton North
Simulation outcomes
Brampton South
Row
Riding
Brampton South
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Brampton South
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 95.5% |
| Liberal | 4.1% |
| NDP | 0.4% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Brampton South
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.5% |
| Liberal | 26.2% |
| NDP | 23.4% |
| Other | 6.6% |
| Green | 6.3% |
Simulation outcomes in Brampton South
Simulation outcomes
Brampton West
Row
Riding
Brampton West
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Brampton West
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 90.9% |
| NDP | 5.1% |
| Liberal | 3.9% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Brampton West
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.5% |
| NDP | 27.5% |
| Liberal | 26.5% |
| Green | 4.5% |
| Other | 4.1% |
Simulation outcomes in Brampton West
Simulation outcomes
Burlington
Row
Riding
Burlington
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Burlington
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 68.2% |
| Liberal | 31.8% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Burlington
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 35.9% |
| Liberal | 32.8% |
| NDP | 19.3% |
| Green | 7.1% |
| Other | 4.9% |
Simulation outcomes in Burlington
Simulation outcomes
Durham
Row
Riding
Durham
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Durham
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.8% |
| Liberal | 0.2% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Durham
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 44.6% |
| Liberal | 24.2% |
| NDP | 22.9% |
| Green | 6.6% |
| Other | 1.8% |
Simulation outcomes in Durham
Simulation outcomes
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Row
Riding
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Flamborough—Glanbrook
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.5% |
| NDP | 0.4% |
| Liberal | 0.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Flamborough—Glanbrook
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 40.3% |
| NDP | 24.0% |
| Liberal | 21.6% |
| Green | 7.4% |
| Other | 6.7% |
Simulation outcomes in Flamborough—Glanbrook
Simulation outcomes
Hamilton Centre
Row
Riding
Hamilton Centre
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in Hamilton Centre
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 100.0% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Hamilton Centre
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 49.6% |
| Liberal | 16.7% |
| PC | 15.9% |
| Green | 10.4% |
| Other | 7.5% |
Simulation outcomes in Hamilton Centre
Simulation outcomes
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Row
Riding
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 92.0% |
| PC | 8.0% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 37.0% |
| PC | 27.6% |
| Liberal | 17.5% |
| Other | 10.6% |
| Green | 7.3% |
Simulation outcomes in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Simulation outcomes
Hamilton Mountain
Row
Riding
Hamilton Mountain
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in Hamilton Mountain
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 95.5% |
| PC | 4.5% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Hamilton Mountain
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 41.3% |
| PC | 28.8% |
| Liberal | 14.0% |
| Green | 9.2% |
| Other | 6.7% |
Simulation outcomes in Hamilton Mountain
Simulation outcomes
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Row
Riding
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 49.9% |
| PC | 26.9% |
| Liberal | 23.2% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 30.7% |
| PC | 29.1% |
| Liberal | 28.0% |
| Green | 7.0% |
| Other | 5.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Simulation outcomes
King—Vaughan
Row
Riding
King—Vaughan
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in King—Vaughan
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.0% |
| Liberal | 1.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in King—Vaughan
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 49.9% |
| Liberal | 31.0% |
| NDP | 10.4% |
| Green | 5.4% |
| Other | 3.3% |
Simulation outcomes in King—Vaughan
Simulation outcomes
Markham—Stouffville
Row
Riding
Markham—Stouffville
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Markham—Stouffville
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 84.9% |
| Liberal | 15.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Markham—Stouffville
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 42.1% |
| Liberal | 34.3% |
| NDP | 13.6% |
| Green | 6.2% |
| Other | 3.8% |
Simulation outcomes in Markham—Stouffville
Simulation outcomes
Markham—Thornhill
Row
Riding
Markham—Thornhill
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Markham—Thornhill
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 93.6% |
| Liberal | 6.4% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Markham—Thornhill
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 44.9% |
| Liberal | 32.9% |
| NDP | 14.4% |
| Other | 4.1% |
| Green | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes in Markham—Thornhill
Simulation outcomes
Markham—Unionville
Row
Riding
Markham—Unionville
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Markham—Unionville
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Markham—Unionville
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 57.4% |
| Liberal | 25.1% |
| NDP | 11.6% |
| Green | 3.5% |
| Other | 2.4% |
Simulation outcomes in Markham—Unionville
Simulation outcomes
Milton
Row
Riding
Milton
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Milton
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 64.6% |
| PC | 35.4% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Milton
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 38.7% |
| PC | 35.8% |
| NDP | 14.6% |
| Green | 7.7% |
| Other | 3.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Milton
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga Centre
Row
Riding
Mississauga Centre
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Mississauga Centre
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 63.7% |
| Liberal | 36.3% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Mississauga Centre
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 35.4% |
| Liberal | 33.1% |
| NDP | 18.1% |
| Other | 9.3% |
| Green | 4.1% |
Simulation outcomes in Mississauga Centre
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Row
Riding
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Projection
Lean Liberal
Chances of winning in Mississauga East—Cooksville
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 68.9% |
| PC | 31.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Mississauga East—Cooksville
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 38.7% |
| PC | 35.1% |
| NDP | 14.7% |
| Other | 6.2% |
| Green | 5.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Mississauga East—Cooksville
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Row
Riding
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Mississauga—Erin Mills
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 66.4% |
| Liberal | 33.6% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Mississauga—Erin Mills
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 36.5% |
| Liberal | 33.6% |
| NDP | 18.4% |
| Other | 7.1% |
| Green | 4.3% |
Simulation outcomes in Mississauga—Erin Mills
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga—Lakeshore
Row
Riding
Mississauga—Lakeshore
Projection
Lean Liberal
Chances of winning in Mississauga—Lakeshore
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 86.4% |
| PC | 13.6% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Mississauga—Lakeshore
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 44.5% |
| PC | 35.7% |
| NDP | 11.7% |
| Green | 4.4% |
| Other | 3.5% |
Simulation outcomes in Mississauga—Lakeshore
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga—Malton
Row
Riding
Mississauga—Malton
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Mississauga—Malton
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 86.9% |
| Liberal | 12.4% |
| NDP | 0.7% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Mississauga—Malton
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 34.0% |
| Liberal | 27.2% |
| NDP | 21.7% |
| Other | 14.4% |
| Green | 2.8% |
Simulation outcomes in Mississauga—Malton
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga—Streetsville
Row
Riding
Mississauga—Streetsville
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Mississauga—Streetsville
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 72.0% |
| Liberal | 28.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Mississauga—Streetsville
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 38.5% |
| Liberal | 34.3% |
| NDP | 17.3% |
| Other | 5.6% |
| Green | 4.4% |
Simulation outcomes in Mississauga—Streetsville
Simulation outcomes
Newmarket—Aurora
Row
Riding
Newmarket—Aurora
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Newmarket—Aurora
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 94.4% |
| Liberal | 5.6% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Newmarket—Aurora
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 42.2% |
| Liberal | 30.4% |
| NDP | 16.0% |
| Other | 5.7% |
| Green | 5.7% |
Simulation outcomes in Newmarket—Aurora
Simulation outcomes
Niagara Centre
Row
Riding
Niagara Centre
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Niagara Centre
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 71.1% |
| NDP | 28.9% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Niagara Centre
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 36.2% |
| NDP | 32.2% |
| Liberal | 17.3% |
| Other | 8.0% |
| Green | 6.4% |
Simulation outcomes in Niagara Centre
Simulation outcomes
Niagara Falls
Row
Riding
Niagara Falls
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Niagara Falls
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 64.3% |
| PC | 35.7% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Niagara Falls
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 39.6% |
| PC | 36.8% |
| Liberal | 14.7% |
| Green | 6.4% |
| Other | 2.5% |
Simulation outcomes in Niagara Falls
Simulation outcomes
Niagara West
Row
Riding
Niagara West
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Niagara West
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Niagara West
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 50.2% |
| NDP | 21.5% |
| Liberal | 15.2% |
| Green | 9.6% |
| Other | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes in Niagara West
Simulation outcomes
Oakville
Row
Riding
Oakville
Projection
Lean Liberal
Chances of winning in Oakville
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 85.5% |
| PC | 14.5% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Oakville
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 45.6% |
| PC | 37.1% |
| NDP | 10.7% |
| Green | 5.3% |
| Other | 1.3% |
Simulation outcomes in Oakville
Simulation outcomes
Oakville North—Burlington
Row
Riding
Oakville North—Burlington
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Oakville North—Burlington
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 87.7% |
| Liberal | 12.3% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Oakville North—Burlington
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 41.5% |
| Liberal | 33.0% |
| NDP | 16.5% |
| Green | 5.9% |
| Other | 3.1% |
Simulation outcomes in Oakville North—Burlington
Simulation outcomes
Oshawa
Row
Riding
Oshawa
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Oshawa
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 84.8% |
| NDP | 15.2% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Oshawa
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 41.9% |
| NDP | 34.0% |
| Liberal | 12.0% |
| Green | 6.5% |
| Other | 5.7% |
Simulation outcomes in Oshawa
Simulation outcomes
Pickering—Uxbridge
Row
Riding
Pickering—Uxbridge
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Pickering—Uxbridge
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 93.1% |
| Liberal | 6.8% |
| NDP | 0.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Pickering—Uxbridge
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 38.9% |
| Liberal | 28.4% |
| NDP | 22.3% |
| Green | 6.5% |
| Other | 4.0% |
Simulation outcomes in Pickering—Uxbridge
Simulation outcomes
Richmond Hill
Row
Riding
Richmond Hill
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Richmond Hill
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 83.4% |
| Liberal | 16.6% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Richmond Hill
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 45.0% |
| Liberal | 37.0% |
| NDP | 11.6% |
| Green | 4.5% |
| Other | 1.8% |
Simulation outcomes in Richmond Hill
Simulation outcomes
St. Catharines
Row
Riding
St. Catharines
Projection
Lean Liberal
Chances of winning in St. Catharines
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 65.2% |
| PC | 30.4% |
| NDP | 4.4% |
Row
Best estimate of results in St. Catharines
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 33.8% |
| PC | 30.7% |
| NDP | 25.3% |
| Green | 6.1% |
| Other | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes in St. Catharines
Simulation outcomes
Thornhill
Row
Riding
Thornhill
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Thornhill
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Thornhill
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 55.6% |
| Liberal | 20.4% |
| NDP | 13.4% |
| Other | 7.1% |
| Green | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes in Thornhill
Simulation outcomes
Vaughan—Woodbridge
Row
Riding
Vaughan—Woodbridge
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Vaughan—Woodbridge
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 57.9% |
| Liberal | 42.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Vaughan—Woodbridge
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 43.4% |
| Liberal | 41.7% |
| NDP | 9.6% |
| Green | 3.5% |
| Other | 1.8% |
Simulation outcomes in Vaughan—Woodbridge
Simulation outcomes
Whitby
Row
Riding
Whitby
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Whitby
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.4% |
| NDP | 0.6% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Whitby
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 44.4% |
| NDP | 26.9% |
| Liberal | 18.9% |
| Green | 5.9% |
| Other | 3.9% |
Simulation outcomes in Whitby
Simulation outcomes
Barrie—Innisfil
Row
Riding
Barrie—Innisfil
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Barrie—Innisfil
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Barrie—Innisfil
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 45.9% |
| NDP | 20.0% |
| Liberal | 17.5% |
| Green | 11.9% |
| Other | 4.8% |
Simulation outcomes in Barrie—Innisfil
Simulation outcomes
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Row
Riding
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 39.7% |
| NDP | 18.9% |
| Green | 18.5% |
| Liberal | 18.2% |
| Other | 4.6% |
Simulation outcomes in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Simulation outcomes
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Row
Riding
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 49.2% |
| Liberal | 16.8% |
| NDP | 16.5% |
| Green | 9.6% |
| Other | 8.0% |
Simulation outcomes in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Simulation outcomes
Dufferin—Caledon
Row
Riding
Dufferin—Caledon
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Dufferin—Caledon
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Dufferin—Caledon
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 46.3% |
| Green | 19.6% |
| Liberal | 16.4% |
| NDP | 13.5% |
| Other | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Dufferin—Caledon
Simulation outcomes
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Row
Riding
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 52.9% |
| NDP | 18.8% |
| Liberal | 14.0% |
| Green | 7.5% |
| Other | 6.9% |
Simulation outcomes in Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Simulation outcomes
Northumberland—Peterborough South
Row
Riding
Northumberland—Peterborough South
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Northumberland—Peterborough South
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 86.0% |
| Liberal | 14.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Northumberland—Peterborough South
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 40.1% |
| Liberal | 32.3% |
| NDP | 16.5% |
| Green | 7.2% |
| Other | 4.0% |
Simulation outcomes in Northumberland—Peterborough South
Simulation outcomes
Perth—Wellington
Row
Riding
Perth—Wellington
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Perth—Wellington
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Perth—Wellington
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 47.4% |
| NDP | 21.8% |
| Liberal | 15.4% |
| Green | 9.8% |
| Other | 5.5% |
Simulation outcomes in Perth—Wellington
Simulation outcomes
Peterborough—Kawartha
Row
Riding
Peterborough—Kawartha
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Peterborough—Kawartha
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 54.6% |
| Liberal | 44.7% |
| NDP | 0.7% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Peterborough—Kawartha
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 34.8% |
| Liberal | 34.2% |
| NDP | 23.6% |
| Green | 5.5% |
| Other | 1.8% |
Simulation outcomes in Peterborough—Kawartha
Simulation outcomes
Simcoe—Grey
Row
Riding
Simcoe—Grey
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Simcoe—Grey
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Simcoe—Grey
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 51.2% |
| Liberal | 20.0% |
| NDP | 15.4% |
| Green | 11.3% |
| Other | 2.1% |
Simulation outcomes in Simcoe—Grey
Simulation outcomes
Simcoe North
Row
Riding
Simcoe North
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Simcoe North
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.6% |
| Liberal | 0.4% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Simcoe North
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 43.1% |
| Liberal | 24.6% |
| NDP | 19.5% |
| Green | 11.1% |
| Other | 1.7% |
Simulation outcomes in Simcoe North
Simulation outcomes
York—Simcoe
Row
Riding
York—Simcoe
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in York—Simcoe
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in York—Simcoe
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 53.4% |
| Liberal | 19.3% |
| NDP | 16.7% |
| Green | 8.1% |
| Other | 2.6% |
Simulation outcomes in York—Simcoe
Simulation outcomes
Bay of Quinte
Row
Riding
Bay of Quinte
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Bay of Quinte
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.9% |
| NDP | 0.1% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Bay of Quinte
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 45.1% |
| NDP | 22.8% |
| Liberal | 21.2% |
| Green | 5.8% |
| Other | 5.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Bay of Quinte
Simulation outcomes
Carleton
Row
Riding
Carleton
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Carleton
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.3% |
| Liberal | 0.7% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Carleton
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 45.2% |
| Liberal | 26.0% |
| NDP | 15.0% |
| Other | 7.5% |
| Green | 6.3% |
Simulation outcomes in Carleton
Simulation outcomes
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Row
Riding
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Projection
Lean Liberal
Chances of winning in Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 76.3% |
| PC | 23.7% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 40.3% |
| PC | 34.6% |
| NDP | 14.0% |
| Other | 6.8% |
| Green | 4.4% |
Simulation outcomes in Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Simulation outcomes
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Row
Riding
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Hastings—Lennox and Addington
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| NDP | 0.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Hastings—Lennox and Addington
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 48.1% |
| NDP | 23.6% |
| Liberal | 17.0% |
| Green | 7.4% |
| Other | 3.9% |
Simulation outcomes in Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Simulation outcomes
Kanata—Carleton
Row
Riding
Kanata—Carleton
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Kanata—Carleton
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 98.9% |
| Liberal | 1.0% |
| NDP | 0.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Kanata—Carleton
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.0% |
| Liberal | 22.0% |
| NDP | 19.0% |
| Other | 13.9% |
| Green | 8.1% |
Simulation outcomes in Kanata—Carleton
Simulation outcomes
Kingston and the Islands
Row
Riding
Kingston and the Islands
Projection
Safe Liberal
Chances of winning in Kingston and the Islands
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 91.9% |
| NDP | 7.7% |
| PC | 0.4% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Kingston and the Islands
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 37.3% |
| NDP | 26.6% |
| PC | 23.5% |
| Green | 10.3% |
| Other | 2.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Kingston and the Islands
Simulation outcomes
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
Row
Riding
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 48.9% |
| NDP | 21.7% |
| Liberal | 15.3% |
| Green | 8.1% |
| Other | 5.9% |
Simulation outcomes in Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
Simulation outcomes
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
Row
Riding
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 56.9% |
| Liberal | 18.9% |
| NDP | 14.0% |
| Green | 8.0% |
| Other | 2.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
Simulation outcomes
Nepean
Row
Riding
Nepean
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Nepean
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 97.4% |
| Liberal | 2.6% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Nepean
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 40.8% |
| Liberal | 26.9% |
| NDP | 19.6% |
| Green | 8.4% |
| Other | 4.3% |
Simulation outcomes in Nepean
Simulation outcomes
Orléans
Row
Riding
Orléans
Projection
Safe Liberal
Chances of winning in Orléans
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 99.5% |
| PC | 0.5% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Orléans
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 49.3% |
| PC | 29.6% |
| NDP | 14.0% |
| Green | 3.8% |
| Other | 3.3% |
Simulation outcomes in Orléans
Simulation outcomes
Ottawa Centre
Row
Riding
Ottawa Centre
Projection
Safe Liberal
Chances of winning in Ottawa Centre
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 92.9% |
| NDP | 7.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Ottawa Centre
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 44.3% |
| NDP | 31.2% |
| PC | 14.5% |
| Green | 5.6% |
| Other | 4.3% |
Simulation outcomes in Ottawa Centre
Simulation outcomes
Ottawa South
Row
Riding
Ottawa South
Projection
Safe Liberal
Chances of winning in Ottawa South
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Ottawa South
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 50.5% |
| PC | 25.0% |
| NDP | 17.6% |
| Green | 4.7% |
| Other | 2.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Ottawa South
Simulation outcomes
Ottawa—Vanier
Row
Riding
Ottawa—Vanier
Projection
Safe Liberal
Chances of winning in Ottawa—Vanier
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Ottawa—Vanier
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 53.0% |
| NDP | 18.5% |
| PC | 17.6% |
| Green | 6.0% |
| Other | 5.0% |
Simulation outcomes in Ottawa—Vanier
Simulation outcomes
Ottawa West—Nepean
Row
Riding
Ottawa West—Nepean
Projection
Safe Liberal
Chances of winning in Ottawa West—Nepean
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 92.7% |
| PC | 7.1% |
| NDP | 0.2% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Ottawa West—Nepean
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 39.0% |
| PC | 29.0% |
| NDP | 21.8% |
| Green | 6.0% |
| Other | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Ottawa West—Nepean
Simulation outcomes
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Row
Riding
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 65.1% |
| Liberal | 14.0% |
| NDP | 12.0% |
| Green | 5.1% |
| Other | 3.8% |
Simulation outcomes in Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Simulation outcomes
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
Row
Riding
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 58.1% |
| Liberal | 17.8% |
| NDP | 15.6% |
| Green | 6.2% |
| Other | 2.4% |
Simulation outcomes in Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
Simulation outcomes
Algoma—Manitoulin
Row
Riding
Algoma—Manitoulin
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in Algoma—Manitoulin
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 99.6% |
| PC | 0.4% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Algoma—Manitoulin
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 42.7% |
| PC | 23.6% |
| Other | 15.7% |
| Liberal | 11.9% |
| Green | 6.1% |
Simulation outcomes in Algoma—Manitoulin
Simulation outcomes
Kenora—Rainy River
Row
Riding
Kenora—Rainy River
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Kenora—Rainy River
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.7% |
| NDP | 0.3% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Kenora—Rainy River
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 47.4% |
| NDP | 27.6% |
| Liberal | 15.7% |
| Green | 6.2% |
| Other | 3.0% |
Simulation outcomes in Kenora—Rainy River
Simulation outcomes
Nickel Belt
Row
Riding
Nickel Belt
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in Nickel Belt
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 99.9% |
| PC | 0.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Nickel Belt
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 49.4% |
| PC | 22.8% |
| Liberal | 13.7% |
| Other | 8.4% |
| Green | 5.8% |
Simulation outcomes in Nickel Belt
Simulation outcomes
Nipissing
Row
Riding
Nipissing
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Nipissing
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.9% |
| NDP | 0.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Nipissing
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 48.8% |
| NDP | 27.2% |
| Liberal | 11.8% |
| Other | 7.2% |
| Green | 5.0% |
Simulation outcomes in Nipissing
Simulation outcomes
Parry Sound—Muskoka
Row
Riding
Parry Sound—Muskoka
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Parry Sound—Muskoka
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 74.6% |
| Green | 25.4% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Parry Sound—Muskoka
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 41.6% |
| Green | 37.1% |
| NDP | 17.4% |
| Other | 3.9% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Simulation outcomes in Parry Sound—Muskoka
Simulation outcomes
Sault Ste. Marie
Row
Riding
Sault Ste. Marie
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Sault Ste. Marie
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 94.2% |
| NDP | 5.8% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Sault Ste. Marie
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 39.7% |
| NDP | 29.1% |
| Liberal | 14.3% |
| Other | 11.5% |
| Green | 5.5% |
Simulation outcomes in Sault Ste. Marie
Simulation outcomes
Sudbury
Row
Riding
Sudbury
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Sudbury
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 62.4% |
| Liberal | 37.6% |
| PC | 0.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Sudbury
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 33.8% |
| Liberal | 31.6% |
| PC | 21.7% |
| Green | 6.9% |
| Other | 6.0% |
Simulation outcomes in Sudbury
Simulation outcomes
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Row
Riding
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Projection
Safe Liberal
Chances of winning in Thunder Bay—Atikokan
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 99.9% |
| NDP | 0.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Thunder Bay—Atikokan
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 46.9% |
| NDP | 24.0% |
| PC | 20.2% |
| Other | 4.7% |
| Green | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Simulation outcomes
Thunder Bay—Superior North
Row
Riding
Thunder Bay—Superior North
Projection
Safe Liberal
Chances of winning in Thunder Bay—Superior North
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 100.0% |
| NDP | 0.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Thunder Bay—Superior North
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 50.9% |
| NDP | 23.9% |
| PC | 15.3% |
| Other | 5.7% |
| Green | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Thunder Bay—Superior North
Simulation outcomes
Timiskaming—Cochrane
Row
Riding
Timiskaming—Cochrane
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in Timiskaming—Cochrane
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 99.8% |
| PC | 0.2% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Timiskaming—Cochrane
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 45.5% |
| PC | 22.2% |
| Other | 14.1% |
| Liberal | 13.5% |
| Green | 4.7% |
Simulation outcomes in Timiskaming—Cochrane
Simulation outcomes
Timmins
Row
Riding
Timmins
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in Timmins
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 98.8% |
| PC | 1.2% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Timmins
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 54.2% |
| PC | 32.8% |
| Other | 9.1% |
| Green | 4.0% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Simulation outcomes in Timmins
Simulation outcomes
Kiiwetinoong
Row
Riding
Kiiwetinoong
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in Kiiwetinoong
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 92.5% |
| PC | 5.4% |
| Liberal | 2.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Kiiwetinoong
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 36.5% |
| PC | 26.5% |
| Liberal | 22.1% |
| Green | 10.8% |
| Other | 4.1% |
Simulation outcomes in Kiiwetinoong
Simulation outcomes
Mushkegowuk—James Bay
Row
Riding
Mushkegowuk—James Bay
Projection
Lean NDP
Chances of winning in Mushkegowuk—James Bay
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 89.4% |
| PC | 10.2% |
| Liberal | 0.4% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Mushkegowuk—James Bay
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 38.8% |
| PC | 29.8% |
| Liberal | 21.6% |
| Other | 6.6% |
| Green | 3.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Mushkegowuk—James Bay
Simulation outcomes
Brantford—Brant
Row
Riding
Brantford—Brant
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Brantford—Brant
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 94.1% |
| NDP | 5.9% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Brantford—Brant
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 40.1% |
| NDP | 29.7% |
| Liberal | 13.9% |
| Other | 8.3% |
| Green | 8.1% |
Simulation outcomes in Brantford—Brant
Simulation outcomes
Cambridge
Row
Riding
Cambridge
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Cambridge
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 52.0% |
| PC | 47.0% |
| NDP | 1.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Cambridge
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 30.2% |
| PC | 29.8% |
| NDP | 21.3% |
| Green | 9.7% |
| Other | 9.1% |
Simulation outcomes in Cambridge
Simulation outcomes
Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Row
Riding
Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Chatham-Kent—Leamington
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| NDP | 0.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Chatham-Kent—Leamington
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 52.0% |
| NDP | 27.0% |
| Liberal | 12.3% |
| Green | 6.4% |
| Other | 2.4% |
Simulation outcomes in Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Simulation outcomes
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Row
Riding
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Elgin—Middlesex—London
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Elgin—Middlesex—London
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 54.5% |
| NDP | 23.8% |
| Liberal | 10.9% |
| Green | 6.8% |
| Other | 3.9% |
Simulation outcomes in Elgin—Middlesex—London
Simulation outcomes
Essex
Row
Riding
Essex
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Essex
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 80.1% |
| NDP | 19.9% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Essex
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 44.2% |
| NDP | 37.4% |
| Liberal | 8.7% |
| Green | 6.5% |
| Other | 3.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Essex
Simulation outcomes
Guelph
Row
Riding
Guelph
Projection
Safe Green
Chances of winning in Guelph
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Green | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Guelph
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Green | 58.0% |
| PC | 15.9% |
| NDP | 11.9% |
| Liberal | 11.1% |
| Other | 3.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Guelph
Simulation outcomes
Haldimand—Norfolk
Row
Riding
Haldimand—Norfolk
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Haldimand—Norfolk
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Haldimand—Norfolk
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 53.3% |
| NDP | 19.1% |
| Liberal | 13.1% |
| Other | 7.6% |
| Green | 6.9% |
Simulation outcomes in Haldimand—Norfolk
Simulation outcomes
Huron—Bruce
Row
Riding
Huron—Bruce
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Huron—Bruce
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Huron—Bruce
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 49.6% |
| NDP | 20.9% |
| Liberal | 20.0% |
| Green | 5.8% |
| Other | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes in Huron—Bruce
Simulation outcomes
Kitchener Centre
Row
Riding
Kitchener Centre
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Kitchener Centre
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 59.3% |
| Liberal | 32.9% |
| PC | 7.9% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Kitchener Centre
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 30.0% |
| Liberal | 27.9% |
| PC | 25.4% |
| Green | 11.2% |
| Other | 5.6% |
Simulation outcomes in Kitchener Centre
Simulation outcomes
Kitchener—Conestoga
Row
Riding
Kitchener—Conestoga
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Kitchener—Conestoga
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 89.7% |
| NDP | 10.0% |
| Liberal | 0.3% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Kitchener—Conestoga
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 33.0% |
| NDP | 25.6% |
| Liberal | 18.9% |
| Other | 11.9% |
| Green | 10.6% |
Simulation outcomes in Kitchener—Conestoga
Simulation outcomes
Kitchener South—Hespeler
Row
Riding
Kitchener South—Hespeler
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Kitchener South—Hespeler
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 95.5% |
| NDP | 4.1% |
| Liberal | 0.4% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Kitchener South—Hespeler
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 36.0% |
| NDP | 26.0% |
| Liberal | 21.0% |
| Green | 12.5% |
| Other | 4.6% |
Simulation outcomes in Kitchener South—Hespeler
Simulation outcomes
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
Row
Riding
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 54.6% |
| NDP | 24.9% |
| Liberal | 9.3% |
| Green | 5.8% |
| Other | 5.4% |
Simulation outcomes in Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
Simulation outcomes
London—Fanshawe
Row
Riding
London—Fanshawe
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in London—Fanshawe
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 95.3% |
| PC | 4.7% |
Row
Best estimate of results in London—Fanshawe
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 43.0% |
| PC | 30.5% |
| Liberal | 13.0% |
| Green | 8.3% |
| Other | 5.2% |
Simulation outcomes in London—Fanshawe
Simulation outcomes
London North Centre
Row
Riding
London North Centre
Projection
Lean NDP
Chances of winning in London North Centre
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 78.0% |
| PC | 20.3% |
| Liberal | 1.7% |
Row
Best estimate of results in London North Centre
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 35.2% |
| PC | 30.1% |
| Liberal | 23.1% |
| Green | 8.0% |
| Other | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes in London North Centre
Simulation outcomes
London West
Row
Riding
London West
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in London West
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 95.7% |
| PC | 4.3% |
Row
Best estimate of results in London West
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 42.4% |
| PC | 29.5% |
| Liberal | 15.2% |
| Green | 6.8% |
| Other | 6.0% |
Simulation outcomes in London West
Simulation outcomes
Oxford
Row
Riding
Oxford
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Oxford
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Oxford
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 53.0% |
| NDP | 22.0% |
| Liberal | 10.1% |
| Other | 7.6% |
| Green | 7.4% |
Simulation outcomes in Oxford
Simulation outcomes
Sarnia—Lambton
Row
Riding
Sarnia—Lambton
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Sarnia—Lambton
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.9% |
| NDP | 0.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Sarnia—Lambton
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 52.8% |
| NDP | 28.4% |
| Liberal | 6.7% |
| Green | 6.6% |
| Other | 5.5% |
Simulation outcomes in Sarnia—Lambton
Simulation outcomes
Waterloo
Row
Riding
Waterloo
Projection
Lean NDP
Chances of winning in Waterloo
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 83.2% |
| PC | 16.8% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Waterloo
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 38.2% |
| PC | 31.5% |
| Liberal | 18.5% |
| Green | 8.7% |
| Other | 3.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Waterloo
Simulation outcomes
Wellington—Halton Hills
Row
Riding
Wellington—Halton Hills
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Wellington—Halton Hills
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Wellington—Halton Hills
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 49.5% |
| Liberal | 17.8% |
| NDP | 16.8% |
| Green | 14.3% |
| Other | 1.5% |
Simulation outcomes in Wellington—Halton Hills
Simulation outcomes
Windsor—Tecumseh
Row
Riding
Windsor—Tecumseh
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in Windsor—Tecumseh
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 98.9% |
| PC | 1.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Windsor—Tecumseh
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 45.2% |
| PC | 27.8% |
| Liberal | 12.7% |
| Green | 8.1% |
| Other | 6.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Windsor—Tecumseh
Simulation outcomes
Windsor West
Row
Riding
Windsor West
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in Windsor West
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 93.3% |
| PC | 6.2% |
| Liberal | 0.5% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Windsor West
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 39.3% |
| PC | 28.6% |
| Liberal | 22.3% |
| Green | 6.4% |
| Other | 3.4% |
Simulation outcomes in Windsor West
Simulation outcomes
Beaches—East York
Row
Riding
Beaches—East York
Projection
Lean Liberal
Chances of winning in Beaches—East York
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 66.5% |
| NDP | 33.5% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Beaches—East York
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 37.1% |
| NDP | 33.3% |
| PC | 16.9% |
| Green | 6.9% |
| Other | 5.7% |
Simulation outcomes in Beaches—East York
Simulation outcomes
Davenport
Row
Riding
Davenport
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in Davenport
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 96.5% |
| Liberal | 3.5% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Davenport
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 45.2% |
| Liberal | 28.2% |
| PC | 16.0% |
| Green | 6.3% |
| Other | 4.3% |
Simulation outcomes in Davenport
Simulation outcomes
Don Valley East
Row
Riding
Don Valley East
Projection
Safe Liberal
Chances of winning in Don Valley East
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 99.2% |
| PC | 0.8% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Don Valley East
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 46.8% |
| PC | 28.6% |
| NDP | 18.0% |
| Green | 3.9% |
| Other | 2.6% |
Simulation outcomes in Don Valley East
Simulation outcomes
Don Valley North
Row
Riding
Don Valley North
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Don Valley North
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 57.6% |
| PC | 42.4% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Don Valley North
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 40.4% |
| PC | 38.7% |
| NDP | 13.8% |
| Green | 4.0% |
| Other | 3.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Don Valley North
Simulation outcomes
Don Valley West
Row
Riding
Don Valley West
Projection
Safe Liberal
Chances of winning in Don Valley West
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 98.2% |
| PC | 1.8% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Don Valley West
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 49.0% |
| PC | 32.3% |
| NDP | 12.0% |
| Green | 4.1% |
| Other | 2.6% |
Simulation outcomes in Don Valley West
Simulation outcomes
Eglinton—Lawrence
Row
Riding
Eglinton—Lawrence
Projection
Safe Liberal
Chances of winning in Eglinton—Lawrence
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 96.3% |
| PC | 3.7% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Eglinton—Lawrence
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 48.9% |
| PC | 34.2% |
| NDP | 11.7% |
| Green | 3.6% |
| Other | 1.6% |
Simulation outcomes in Eglinton—Lawrence
Simulation outcomes
Etobicoke Centre
Row
Riding
Etobicoke Centre
Projection
Lean Liberal
Chances of winning in Etobicoke Centre
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 84.0% |
| PC | 16.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Etobicoke Centre
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 44.0% |
| PC | 36.2% |
| NDP | 11.6% |
| Other | 4.7% |
| Green | 3.5% |
Simulation outcomes in Etobicoke Centre
Simulation outcomes
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Row
Riding
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Etobicoke—Lakeshore
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 59.4% |
| Liberal | 40.3% |
| NDP | 0.3% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Etobicoke—Lakeshore
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 35.2% |
| Liberal | 33.5% |
| NDP | 22.9% |
| Green | 5.9% |
| Other | 2.5% |
Simulation outcomes in Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Simulation outcomes
Etobicoke North
Row
Riding
Etobicoke North
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Etobicoke North
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.9% |
| Liberal | 0.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Etobicoke North
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 48.6% |
| Liberal | 25.6% |
| NDP | 17.9% |
| Green | 4.7% |
| Other | 3.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Etobicoke North
Simulation outcomes
Humber River—Black Creek
Row
Riding
Humber River—Black Creek
Projection
Safe Liberal
Chances of winning in Humber River—Black Creek
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 92.2% |
| PC | 4.2% |
| NDP | 3.7% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Humber River—Black Creek
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 37.6% |
| PC | 27.1% |
| NDP | 25.3% |
| Other | 7.5% |
| Green | 2.5% |
Simulation outcomes in Humber River—Black Creek
Simulation outcomes
Parkdale—High Park
Row
Riding
Parkdale—High Park
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in Parkdale—High Park
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 98.0% |
| Liberal | 2.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Parkdale—High Park
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 44.9% |
| Liberal | 25.8% |
| PC | 18.1% |
| Green | 8.4% |
| Other | 2.8% |
Simulation outcomes in Parkdale—High Park
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough—Agincourt
Row
Riding
Scarborough—Agincourt
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Scarborough—Agincourt
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 80.1% |
| Liberal | 19.9% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Scarborough—Agincourt
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 43.5% |
| Liberal | 36.8% |
| NDP | 11.5% |
| Other | 5.6% |
| Green | 2.7% |
Simulation outcomes in Scarborough—Agincourt
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough Centre
Row
Riding
Scarborough Centre
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Scarborough Centre
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 75.4% |
| Liberal | 23.8% |
| NDP | 0.8% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Scarborough Centre
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 34.1% |
| Liberal | 29.7% |
| NDP | 22.5% |
| Other | 10.0% |
| Green | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes in Scarborough Centre
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough—Guildwood
Row
Riding
Scarborough—Guildwood
Projection
Safe Liberal
Chances of winning in Scarborough—Guildwood
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 98.0% |
| PC | 2.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Scarborough—Guildwood
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 42.1% |
| PC | 27.8% |
| NDP | 17.7% |
| Other | 8.7% |
| Green | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes in Scarborough—Guildwood
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough North
Row
Riding
Scarborough North
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in Scarborough North
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 97.8% |
| Liberal | 2.2% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Scarborough North
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 47.0% |
| Liberal | 30.6% |
| NDP | 17.2% |
| Green | 2.6% |
| Other | 2.6% |
Simulation outcomes in Scarborough North
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough—Rouge Park
Row
Riding
Scarborough—Rouge Park
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Scarborough—Rouge Park
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 81.4% |
| Liberal | 15.5% |
| NDP | 3.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Scarborough—Rouge Park
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 36.0% |
| Liberal | 29.4% |
| NDP | 25.7% |
| Other | 4.9% |
| Green | 4.0% |
Simulation outcomes in Scarborough—Rouge Park
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough Southwest
Row
Riding
Scarborough Southwest
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Scarborough Southwest
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 62.3% |
| PC | 24.1% |
| Liberal | 13.6% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Scarborough Southwest
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 33.3% |
| PC | 30.1% |
| Liberal | 27.6% |
| Green | 4.7% |
| Other | 4.3% |
Simulation outcomes in Scarborough Southwest
Simulation outcomes
Spadina—Fort York
Row
Riding
Spadina—Fort York
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Spadina—Fort York
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 59.0% |
| Liberal | 41.0% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Spadina—Fort York
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 35.6% |
| Liberal | 33.9% |
| PC | 20.7% |
| Green | 6.2% |
| Other | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes in Spadina—Fort York
Simulation outcomes
Toronto Centre
Row
Riding
Toronto Centre
Projection
Tossup
Chances of winning in Toronto Centre
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 50.5% |
| NDP | 49.5% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Toronto Centre
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 38.2% |
| NDP | 37.9% |
| PC | 13.2% |
| Other | 5.5% |
| Green | 5.2% |
Simulation outcomes in Toronto Centre
Simulation outcomes
Toronto—Danforth
Row
Riding
Toronto—Danforth
Projection
Safe NDP
Chances of winning in Toronto—Danforth
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 99.9% |
| Liberal | 0.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Toronto—Danforth
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 49.4% |
| Liberal | 21.8% |
| PC | 16.3% |
| Green | 8.0% |
| Other | 4.5% |
Simulation outcomes in Toronto—Danforth
Simulation outcomes
Toronto—St. Paul’s
Row
Riding
Toronto—St. Paul’s
Projection
Safe Liberal
Chances of winning in Toronto—St. Paul’s
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 99.5% |
| NDP | 0.4% |
| PC | 0.1% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Toronto—St. Paul’s
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 44.4% |
| NDP | 24.2% |
| PC | 23.3% |
| Green | 5.1% |
| Other | 3.0% |
Simulation outcomes in Toronto—St. Paul’s
Simulation outcomes
University—Rosedale
Row
Riding
University—Rosedale
Projection
Lean NDP
Chances of winning in University—Rosedale
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 69.4% |
| Liberal | 30.6% |
Row
Best estimate of results in University—Rosedale
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 35.1% |
| Liberal | 31.1% |
| PC | 19.7% |
| Green | 8.9% |
| Other | 5.1% |
Simulation outcomes in University—Rosedale
Simulation outcomes
Willowdale
Row
Riding
Willowdale
Projection
Lean PC
Chances of winning in Willowdale
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 66.8% |
| Liberal | 33.2% |
Row
Best estimate of results in Willowdale
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 38.7% |
| Liberal | 35.7% |
| NDP | 17.4% |
| Other | 4.5% |
| Green | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes in Willowdale
Simulation outcomes
York Centre
Row
Riding
York Centre
Projection
Safe PC
Chances of winning in York Centre
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 98.2% |
| Liberal | 1.8% |
Row
Best estimate of results in York Centre
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 44.5% |
| Liberal | 28.7% |
| NDP | 15.8% |
| Other | 7.3% |
| Green | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes in York Centre
Simulation outcomes
York South—Weston
Row
Riding
York South—Weston
Projection
Lean Liberal
Chances of winning in York South—Weston
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 86.4% |
| PC | 11.8% |
| NDP | 1.8% |
Row
Best estimate of results in York South—Weston
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 38.6% |
| PC | 30.4% |
| NDP | 25.1% |
| Green | 4.2% |
| Other | 1.7% |
Simulation outcomes in York South—Weston
Simulation outcomes